KUALA LUMPUR, Dec. 4 (Xinhua) -- Economists offer a mixed outlook on Malaysia's economic prospects in 2026, with forecasts ranging from 3.8 percent to 5.2 percent as they weigh resilient domestic demand and investment momentum against weaker external conditions and softer exports to key markets.
Nomura Research said in its recent report that it has raised Malaysia's 2026 GDP growth forecast materially to 5.2 percent, from 4 percent previously.
"Our forecast is underpinned by still-robust domestic demand, particularly strong investment spending, supported by the government's implementation of structural reforms and major infrastructure projects, as reinforced by the 13th Malaysia Plan outlining strategic initiatives to support high-value-added industries," said the research house.
According to Nomura, Malaysia attracted a total of 285.2 billion ringgit (69.36 billion U.S. dollars) of approved investments in the first three quarters this year, up 13.2 percent year-on-year, led by foreign investment.
Meanwhile, CGS International said in its report that it forecasts Malaysia's 2026 GDP growth of 4.6 percent, slightly lower than its 2025 growth projection of 4.7 percent, pricing in a moderation of domestic demand with some support on the external side.
"Steady labor market, sustained targeted subsidies, and improvements in tourism-related sectors should continue to anchor domestic demand," said the research house.
OCBC Global Markets Research, however, said that it foresees cyclically slower growth of 3.8 percent for Malaysia in 2026 due to reduced exports to the United States, weaker external demand and some moderation in investment spending.
"Our GDP growth profile suggests that the weakness in growth will be gradual to 3.9 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2026 and 3.8 percent in the second half of 2026," said the research house.
OCBC sees slower economic growth being driven mainly by a payback from frontloading of exports to the United States through 2025, as well as modestly slower investment spending. ■