China Focus: China's new five-year plan charts world's largest modernization by population

BEIJING, March 11 (Xinhua) -- With a new development blueprint under review at the ongoing national legislative session, China is embracing a critical five-year period in an ambitious drive to basically modernize its vast population by 2035, on a scale unseen in human history.

According to the draft outline of China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), the country aims to lay a solid foundation for achieving its 2035 goal of doubling its 2020 per capita gross domestic product (GDP) to over 20,000 U.S. dollars, a level typical of a moderately developed country.

The vision further holds that by 2035, China's economic strength, scientific and technological ability, national defense capabilities, composite national strength, and international influence will all become markedly stronger, people will live better and happier lives, and socialist modernization will be basically realized.

So far, fewer than 30 countries and regions worldwide have achieved modernization, with a combined population not exceeding 1 billion, including Britain's around 70 million people and the United States' roughly 340 million, all far less than China's population of 1.4 billion.

The sheer size of China's population presents formidable challenges. Yet the country is resolved to ensure development gains are shared by all its people.

For the next five years, China plans to raise average life expectancy to 80 years, increase the number of practicing physicians to 3.7 per 1,000 people, and improve the permanent urbanization rate to 71 percent, among other goals, according to the draft outline.

Experts believe that meeting these targets will be far from easy, particularly given the country's stringent resource constraints.

Due to the massive population base, China's per capita holdings of arable land, water resources and crude oil all lag significantly behind global averages. Also, the demographic challenges of declining birth rates and rapid population aging are placing additional strain on the country's modernization push.

China's distinctive realities mean there is little historical precedent to follow.

Rather than transplanting modernization paradigms developed by Western economies, China must pursue its own path, addressing challenges with policies and practices tailored to its unique conditions, said Fu Zheng, a scholar with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

FOCUS ON HIGH QUALITY

At the core of this path is the pursuit of high-quality development, guided by a new development philosophy that emphasizes innovation, coordination, green development, openness and shared growth, which is among a set of guiding principles laid out in the draft outline of the plan.

Over the next five years, China will increase its total research and development spending by an average of more than 7 percent annually and raise the value added of core digital economy industries to 12.5 percent of GDP, according to the draft outline.

The green transition will also pick up pace in the 2026-2030 period, with the goals of cutting carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 17 percent from the 2025 level and lifting the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to 25 percent by the end of this period.

"Chinese modernization will turn to higher efficiency, technological innovation and eco-friendly growth," said Jiang Haoran, chairman of Cashway Fintech Co., Ltd.

"It means fundamentally reshaping the drivers of growth, moving away from the old model of resource-intensive expansion and toward a more sustainable path," said Wang Pu, a professor at Beijing University of Technology.

China's pursuit of high-quality development is aimed at comprehensively improving daily living standards, a challenging task for any country with a population of this size.

The draft outline listed specific targets including reaching total grain production capacity of 725 million tonnes by 2030, and implementing urban renewal programs aimed at improving housing conditions. Infrastructure such as power supply, high-speed rail and telecom networks is also set to be further upgraded in this period, in the quest to provide adequate electricity, more convenient transport and faster communication.

China's vast population could be a powerful source of momentum, providing an enormous talent pool and abundant application scenarios for technology innovation while cultivating a vibrant domestic market to foster balanced trade and coordinated development. In line with the new development philosophy, these will help the economy build greater resilience in a volatile world.

The draft outline proposes a series of measures to fully tap this demographic advantage, particularly against the backdrop of an aging and declining population.

Focused on improving population structure and raising human capital, these measures include strengthening fertility support and incentives, better aligning education resources with demographic shifts, and bolstering the elderly care sector.

"This will not only enable China's vast domestic market to fully unleash its potential, but also give a strong boost to technological innovation," said Zhang Shuibo, a national lawmaker and professor of the College of Management and Economics at Tianjin University.

BOON FOR THE WORLD

Once China succeeds in modernizing its vast population, the proportion of humanity that has achieved modernization will more than double, from about one-seventh to roughly one-third of the global population, providing a major boost to the world's development.

Notably, its super-large domestic market is expected to generate sustained impetus for the global economy.

China is already the world's second-largest import market, and its growing middle-income group means demand still has considerable room to expand, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao said, noting that China is proactively opening its vast market and will promote balanced trade through expanding imports while stabilizing exports.

Foreign companies particularly welcome the enormous opportunities offered by the Chinese market.

Toy giant LEGO Group said it is doubling down on the Chinese market with a long-term investment strategy, while aircraft manufacturer Airbus also expressed strong commitment, saying China's aviation market holds immense potential.

For developing countries seeking prosperity and development, China's experience offers a practical reference point, showing that modernization does not have to follow a single template. Instead, countries can pursue development paths determined by their own conditions, priorities and stages of development.

"With a people-centered approach, it balances the inclusivity and sustainability of population modernization, reflecting unique value orientations and governance wisdom, and contributing Chinese solutions to the global modernization process," said Darren Smith, a professor at Loughborough University in Britain and a fellow of the British Academy of Social Sciences. ■