Interview: Takaichi's erroneous remarks to deal fundamental blow to Japanese economy, says economist

TOKYO, Nov. 27 (Xinhua) -- Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's understanding of China and Japan-China relations is seriously out of touch with reality, and her recent series of actions have had a significant impact on bilateral relations, Hidetoshi Tashiro, chief economist of Japan's Infinity LLC., has said.

"If she does not change her behavior, it will deal a fundamental blow to the Japanese economy, " Tashiro said in an exclusive interview with Xinhua recently.

Tashiro expressed deep concern over Takaichi's behavior that crossed China's red line, which has led to a sharp deterioration in bilateral ties.

He noted the close business ties between Japan and China as Chinese products contain components manufactured by Japanese companies, and some Japanese products contain components that only Chinese companies can manufacture. For Japan, China has long been an entity from which it "cannot decouple," stressed the economist.

Tashiro stated that Japan and China's needs from each other are not equal, with Japan being more dependent on China, and China's economy is nearly five times the size of Japan's.

If trade and investment between the two countries were to completely cease, China would certainly be troubled. But for Japan, it would be far more than just a loss, but a matter of "life and death," Tashiro said.

Tashiro believes that Japan's tourism, retail, and film industries will be affected first. Tourism and retail are important "employment reservoirs" in Japan, especially in sparsely populated areas that heavily rely on the economic benefits and job opportunities brought by tourism.

He said that Chinese tourists are not only the largest source of visitors to Japan, but also possess strong spending power. According to data released by the Japan Tourism Agency, tourists from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong contributed approximately 30 percent of total inbound tourism spending in Japan during the first three quarters of this year.

"The sharp decline in the number of Chinese tourists will cause huge losses to Japan's retail and tourism industries. What's more, the loss of Chinese tourists will also severely impact the local economies in Japan," Tashiro said.

"The Japanese TV drama sector may also be impacted in the future," Tashiro added. "Nowadays, Japanese television stations rely on sales in the Chinese market as a prerequisite for profitability when producing high-cost series. If the export of dramas to China is affected, the losses will be enormous."

Tashiro emphasized that the deeper risk of deteriorating Japan-China relations lies in the supply chain, noting that the supply chains of almost all Japanese industries are linked to China.

If these supply chains are disrupted, Japanese companies will find themselves in an unsustainable predicament. If the severe situation persists, it may shake the foundation of the Japanese economy, Tashiro said.

"The Chinese economy can do without Japan, but the Japanese economy cannot exist without China. If Takaichi refuses to retract her remarks and continues to provoke, leaving no hope for improvement in Japan-China relations, it could affect business confidence in the future," Tashiro cautioned.

"If this continues, the Japanese economy might suffer a severe recession next year," he warned. ■